Phishing over time: verifying trends based on anti-phishing database data

Abstract

Phishing is one of the key cybersecurity threats, yet its actual growth dynamics require empirical verification. This chapter presents a comprehensive analysis of phishing attack trends over the years 2009–2025, using data from leading anti-phishing databases and cybersecurity institutions. Particular attention is paid to the methodology of aggregating and normalising data from different sources and to identifying potential systematic biases in incident reporting. The study analyses the seasonality of attacks, their correlation with external events and changes in the phishing techniques used. The results make it possible to verify the common belief in a steady growth of the phishing threat and provide an empirical basis for assessing the effectiveness of current countermeasures. Recommendations for improving phishing incident data collection systems and directions for further research are also presented.